BTC: $83,900
├ 50MA: $76,899 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,239 ✅
├ Realized: $53,074 (MVRV 1.58)
├ STH cost basis: $72,763
├ LTH cost basis: $48,751
├ RSI (weekly): 60.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,704
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,388
├ BTC/Gold: 20.1 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 73 (Greed)
ETF 5d +1418M$ / 20d +2947M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.92
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/88000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Positive gamma regime (weekly GEX +$15M) — the board dampens moves and favors pinning into Friday. Weekly flip 82.8k, spot holding just above. Weekly put wall 82k (also gamma mass + fresh confluence zone at 81,980, score 3 — strongest on the map), call wall 88k (fresh zone 88,110), max pain 83k sitting right on spot.
Note: ~81% of new weekly OI last session was built above spot (87k/85k/86k) — mass sits at 82k, but fresh flow leans higher.
Weekly charm −$5.7M.
IBIT agrees: ceiling 88.1k, max pain 82.8k, gamma mass 83.7k at spot — both venues frame the same 82–88k range.
Total
Full book: dealer net delta +$5.4B, total GEX +$239M — global positive gamma, book-wide flip at 74.4k far below. Spot trades above every slow anchor: MA50 76.9k, MA200 71.2k, STH cost basis 72.8k, IBIT cost basis 81.7k.
Fear&Greed 73 (greed), yet DVOL 35.6 is only the 9th percentile of the year — vol premium is historically thin, worth factoring into CSP/CC sizing, not a directional signal.
Structurally: a calm range-bound tape with support below and a lid near 88k.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 87 of tracking. Honest check: yesterday's 82,000–85,500 chop held — 83,465 → 83,900, spot mid-range, no triggers hit; fifth day of pinning on this shelf after the run from 76k.
Base case: into the Oct 2 expiry (3 DTE), pin 82,000–85,500 around max pain 83k — positive gamma, the 82k node below (put wall + flip 82.8k + fresh zone 81,980), zone 85,003 and freshly built OI at 85–87k above. Options price only ~0.6% odds of −10% by Friday — no crash priced.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 85.0–85.3k opens 86–88k (call wall + fresh zone 88,110).
Downside trigger: losing 82.0–82.4k targets 79.9–80k (zone 79,397 + heavy 80k OI), then 78k.
Backdrop: ETF +$1.4B over 5d, last day's liquidations skewed to short squeezes. Beta caveat: the pin can dissolve after Friday's expiry — we'll reframe on the new board.