BTC: $83,465
├ 50MA: $76,490 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,171 ✅
├ Realized: $52,917 (MVRV 1.58)
├ STH cost basis: $72,158
├ LTH cost basis: $48,723
├ RSI (weekly): 59.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,704
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,396
├ BTC/Gold: 20.1 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 74 (Greed)
ETF 5d +2386M$ / 20d +2714M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.34
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/88000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma (weekly net GEX +$6.2M, full book +$220M) — moves get dampened, pin risk elevated.
Weekly flip 82.9k sits right under spot; below it a triple cluster at 82k (put wall + max pain + gamma mass) plus a fresh score-4 zone at 81,969. Cap: 88k call wall.
Session flow built 86k/82k/80k with 45% of new OI above spot — the board is active, not lagging.
Weekly charm −$4.8M (gross OI-weighted). IBIT lines up with BTC: cap ~87.7k, max pain 82.5k, floor ~79.8k.
Total
Full-book dealer net delta ~+$5.0B — dealer hedge sits long spot.
Spot is above every slow anchor: MA50 76.5k, MA200 71.2k, STH basis 72.2k, mining cost 74.4k; just over IBIT basis 81.7k. Fear&Greed 74.
DVOL 36 (13th pctile of the year) — vol premium is lean, option sellers get paid below average; argues for conservative strikes.
Overall: range structure with a firm floor.
Week ahead (beta)
85,038 → 83,465: yesterday's 83–86.6k pin held at its lower edge; the 86.6–87k upside trigger never fired, spot slid from the 85k gamma mass toward the 82.9k flip.
Base case into Oct 2 expiry: chop 82.0–85.5k, floor at the 82k cluster (flip + put wall + max pain + fresh zone 81,969); long-gamma regime, options price only ~1.5% odds of −10% by Friday. Backdrop mixed: ETF +$2.4B/5d, but weekly liquidations shifted toward longs (CLLD 7d +0.6).
Upside: reclaim 85–85.6k opens 86–88k (flow built 86k; 88k call wall + fresh zone 87,971).
Downside: losing 82.0–82.4k exposes 80.4k, then 78.0–78.8k.
Beta: structure favors range, but spot sits barely above flip — a 82k wick on thin liquidity is possible.