BTC: $85,038
├ 50MA: $76,135 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,111 ✅
├ Realized: $52,880 (MVRV 1.61)
├ STH cost basis: $71,806
├ LTH cost basis: $48,745
├ RSI (weekly): 61.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,700
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,394
├ BTC/Gold: 19.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 70 (Greed)
ETF 5d +2386M$ / 20d +2714M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.61
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/88000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Long gamma: weekly flip at 82.9k, spot well above — dealers dampen moves, pin conditions in place.
Weekly board: 88k call wall / 78k put wall, max pain 83k; gamma mass sits right at 85k — exactly on spot, strong pin argument into Friday.
Fresh OI went to 85k (+20), 84k and 87k while 75k got unwound — the board is building around and above price.
Weekly charm −$10.4M, with only 26% of OI above spot.
IBIT tells the same story: gamma mass 85.6k, calls clustered 89.2k, max pain 83.9k, but its downside support sits higher at 81.2k vs BTC's 78k. Venues aligned, institutions keep the floor closer to price.
Total
Full-book dealer net delta +$6.0B, total GEX +$0.3B — long gamma across the board.
Spot trades above every slow anchor: realized 52.9k, 200d MA 71.1k, STH basis 71.8k, 50d MA 76.1k, IBIT basis 81.7k.
Fear&Greed at 70; DVOL 34.8 is the 5th percentile of the year — sold vol is paying historically little.
Total max pain 78k and full-book flip 72.6k sit far below — the regime has plenty of cushion.
Week ahead (beta)
85 days of track record. Yesterday's base case (82–85.5k chop) played out to the upper edge — 83,940 → 85,038, spot landed right on the 85k gamma mass; the 85.5–85.8k upside trigger isn't confirmed yet.
Base case into the Oct 2 expiry: pin 83,000–86,600 around 85k — long gamma, gamma mass on spot, fresh OI built 84–87k; ETF inflows +$2.4B over 5d, liquidations skew to short squeezes. Options price ~1.3% odds of −10% by Friday.
Upside trigger: holding above 86.6–87k opens the 88k call wall; beyond that the weekly options-implied ceiling is ~90k.
Downside: losing 84.5k and max pain 83k puts the 82.9k flip in play, then 80k and the 78k put floor.
Beta: pinning at 85k is the consensus path; a momentum break of 88k could outrun the board's repositioning by a day or two.