BTC: $80,215
├ 50MA: $72,445 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,418 ✅
├ Realized: $52,806 (MVRV 1.52)
├ STH cost basis: $71,208
├ LTH cost basis: $48,795
├ RSI (weekly): 55.8
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,637
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $89,580
├ BTC/Gold: 18.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 56 (Greed)
ETF 5d -440M$ / 20d +1936M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.88
liq BTC 6m 0.33 3m 0.23 1m 0.44 7d 0.59 (—) | ETH 6m 0.07 3m 0.07 1m 0.15 7d 0.61 (B↓)
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/85000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Long gamma: total GEX +$348M, weekly +$196M — dealer hedging dampens swings, and the 80k gamma wall sits right on spot, a pin candidate.
Weekly flip is way down at 72.9k; walls 85k call / 70k put, max pain 72k. Flow confirms the low center of mass: fresh OI went in below spot (74k/76k, only ~16% of adds above price) with trims at 78k/82k.
Weekly charm +$3.9M (gross, reflects OI sitting below spot).
IBIT diverges: its put support sits right under price (~78k), call/gamma wall ~79.8k, max pain 75.2k, with active building around spot — the ETF leg is centered on price while Deribit mass stays low.
Total
Total dealer DEX +$6.2B net long delta.
Spot 80.2k trades above the 50/200 DMAs (72.4k / 70.4k) and STH cost basis (71.2k), just under IBIT's 81.6k basis; mining cost 89.6k overhead.
Fear & Greed 56; DVOL 33.9 at the 0.7 percentile of its 52w range — vol premium is thin.
Structure favors consolidation near 80k with a lid at 81.6–82.9k.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 76 of tracking. Honest scorecard: yesterday's upside trigger fired big — 76,650 → 80,215, spot cut through 78k, the 79k call wall and 79.6–80k liq; the eighth dip-buy turned into a breakout through the top of the old 76.5–82k range.
Base case: consolidation 78.7–82k around the 80k gamma wall — long gamma, liq magnets 80,050/80,850 hug spot on both sides; the lid is the 81.6–82.9k node (IBIT basis + fresh 81.8k zone + 82,850 liq).
Upside trigger: acceptance above 81–81.8k opens 82.85k, then the 85k weekly call wall. Downside: losing 78.7k (liq) brings back the 75.4–75.9k shelf (zone + liq + MSTR basis).
Uncertainty is high after a +4.6% day: the weekly board's mass sits low (max pain 72k), so a pullback to 78–79k wouldn't break the structure — options price only ~1.8% odds of −10% by Friday.