BTC: $76,650
├ 50MA: $72,183 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,373 ✅
├ Realized: $52,803 (MVRV 1.45)
├ STH cost basis: $71,168
├ LTH cost basis: $48,800
├ RSI (weekly): 54.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,653
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $88,821
├ BTC/Gold: 17.5 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 50 (Neutral)
ETF 5d -882M$ / 20d +2293M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.84
liq BTC 6m 0.36 3m 0.26 1m 0.47 7d 0.63 (—) | ETH 6m 0.10 3m 0.11 1m 0.22 7d 0.74 (B↓)
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/79000 Month 70000/82000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Book-wide gamma is positive, but the weekly slice is mildly short gamma below the 76,927 flip (−$12M) — spot sits right under it, so intraday swings can run wider than usual. Weekly gamma mass at 77k, max pain 77.5k — both just overhead.
Weekly walls: calls 79k / puts 74k. Session flows: 74k built hardest (+1,572) plus 76.5k; 79k trimmed — the floor is being reinforced, not the cap.
Weekly charm +$19.7M (gross); 61% of weekly OI sits above spot, gamma leans the same way (57%).
IBIT agrees with BTC on the cap (~79.7k vs 79k) and flip (75.9k vs 76.9k), but its floor is lower (put wall 70.8k, max pain 72.6k). Notably, IBIT built 75,253 right at price (+14,197 contracts) — the ETF board is centering on spot.
Total
Book-wide dealer net delta +$3.5B — recovered from yesterday's run-low ($2.79B).
Spot 76,650 trades above MA50 (72.2k), MA200 (70.4k), STH cost basis (71.2k) and just above MSTR basis (75.4k), but below IBIT basis (81.7k) and mining cost (88.8k) — medium-term structure constructive, nearest ceiling is fundamental.
Fear & Greed 50, dead neutral. DVOL 34.8 sits at the 4th percentile of the year: vol premium is historically thin, short-premium levels pay modestly.
Overall: positive-gamma book, board centered on price, no deep downside priced for the week.
Week ahead (beta)
75 days of track. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger fired — reclaim of the 76.6k flip, 75,578 → 76,650; the range break got no downside follow-through, making it the eighth floor buyback of this run. Spot sits right under the new flip 76.9k and a 76,950 liq magnet (weight 100).
Base case into tomorrow's expiry: a fight for the 76.9–77.5k node (flip + 77k gamma mass + max pain); acceptance above opens 78k, then the 79k call wall and liqs at 79.6k/80k. Options price ~0% odds of −10% by Friday.
Downside trigger: losing 75.85k (liq) and MSTR basis 75.4k points to the 74.75k liq and the 74k put wall (fresh 73,974 zone).
Post-expiry the monthly board is centered lower (max pain 72k, put wall 70k) — the range can widen down without breaking structure.
Uncertainty is high: yesterday's range break is technically still live — today's bounce could be a retest from below; confirmation only above 77.5k.