BTC: $80,720
├ 50MA: $81,842 🔻
├ 200MA: $72,941 ✅
├ Realized: $53,504 (MVRV 1.51)
├ STH cost basis: $74,604
├ LTH cost basis: $48,733
├ RSI (weekly): 55.3
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,745
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $78,871
├ BTC/Gold: 20.2 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 51 (Neutral)
ETF 5d +360M$ / 20d -91M$ · CME fwd 0/4 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d +0.90
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 75000/86000 Month 70000/90000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Week (Oct 30 expiry): Deribit dealer gamma positive (+7.3M), but spot 80.7k sits just 0.4% above the flip at 80.4k — below it the regime turns negative and moves sharpen; weekly gamma mass at 82k, above price. Walls on this slice are far: call 95k, put 70k — tail mass, not targets; nearer clusters 85k above and 75k below (weekly OI), max pain 78k under spot.
BTC board barely built last session (+40 contracts): 87% of adds above spot, 81k +201, 87k and 64k unwound. Weekly charm +2.6M (gross by OI; 13.9M yesterday — compressed as spot slid toward the center of mass).
IBIT: also positive gamma, flip 79.3k, call wall 84.3k, put wall 77.2k, max pain 82.5k; building actively, 72% above spot (81.6k, 84.3k, 85.1k; 77.2k below). Venues diverge on magnets: BTC pulls to 78k from below, IBIT to 82.5k from above — spot is wedged between.
Total
Full book positive gamma (+68.7M), total flip 78.9k and max pain 78k — both supports under spot. Book DEX 2.41B vs 3.29B yesterday and 4.47B on Oct 21: dealers' net delta shrank a quarter for the second time this week — thinner hedge cushion heading into FOMC week.
Week ahead (beta)
112 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's 77–87k range holds — 81,874 → 80,720 — but the base case of chop around 82k didn't play: spot gave up 81.7k (MA50 + IBIT cost basis, spent zone) and slid to the weekly flip at 80.4k; downside trigger (hold below 80.8k) touched, not confirmed. Oct 23 session −0.3%, quiet. Only FOMC was flagged yesterday — it's Oct 28, nothing to verify.
Base case: into Oct 30, a 76,000–86,000 range centered 78.5–83k — a fight for the 80.4k flip with a test of the 79.0k node (score 5 fresh: flip + gamma + max pain + OI + STH cost basis; miner cost 78.9k and total flip 78.9k nearby). Weekly gamma is positive but the cushion above the flip is thin; IBIT in positive gamma with a 77.2k put wall and 79.3k flip smooths. FOMC Oct 28 — macro event this week, vol runs multiples of normal in its hours; scale, not direction — widen the range and strikes. Backdrop leans heavy: long liquidations dominate day and week (CLLD +0.9/+0.79), last ETF day an outflow with 5d still positive, DEX down a quarter, BTC board not building. Priced odds of −10% by Oct 30 ~2.4% — no dump priced. Slow trend still up.
Downside trigger: hold below 80.4k (weekly gamma flips negative, sharper moves) → 79.0k and 78k (weekly and total max pain, fresh zone); break 78k → 77.2k (IBIT put) and 75k (monthly put wall + quarterly max pain + MSTR cost basis, score 3 fresh, puts being built), then 70k.
Upside trigger: reclaim 81.7–82k (gamma mass) → 82.5k (IBIT max pain), 84.3k (IBIT call wall), 85–86k (weekly OI, monthly builds, upper 5% band of the week); 90k is the ceiling.
Alternative: a 79k stop-run on FOMC with a return to 80–82k by Friday — the last four weeks pierced and bought back the edges, but this is the first time spot enters the event sitting on the flip rather than above it. Beta.