BTC: $84,812
├ 50MA: $78,576 ✅
├ 200MA: $71,462 ✅
├ Realized: $53,124 (MVRV 1.60)
├ STH cost basis: $72,938
├ LTH cost basis: $48,868
├ RSI (weekly): 61.7
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,716
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,345
├ BTC/Gold: 20.5 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 67 (Greed)
ETF 5d +83M$ / 20d +2187M$ · CME fwd 1/4 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.86
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/90000 Month 70000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Positive gamma, but the weekly book thinned out: net GEX 3.4M vs 20M yesterday — weaker pinning, sharper moves inside the range. Weekly gamma flip 84.6k sits right under spot: a break below flips the weekly slice to negative gamma. Gamma mass 85k, max pain 84k.
Walls: call 90k (fresh zones 88.6k and 89.9k just below it), put 81k. Session OI build on BTC was below spot: 81k +30, 83k +22, while 88k was unwound (−71), 89k +24 — mass is migrating under spot, not toward an 88k test.
Weekly charm −3.2M (gross figure, sign driven by OI sitting below spot — not a hedge vector).
IBIT diverges: put wall/max pain 83.4k, call wall 88.7k, gamma 85.2k, +85k contracts on the session, 78% above spot (88.7k, 85.2k, 86.9k) — the ETF book builds up, Deribit builds down.
Total
Total-book DEX 5.05B — down from 6.22B yesterday, back to the Oct 1 level (5.0B): the dealer delta added on the run to 86.5k left with the price. Total flip 76.4k, max pain 79k; DVOL 34.6 at the 3rd percentile of the year — premium for sold vol is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
91 days of history. Honestly: yesterday's base case (84.5–89k with a test of 88.4–88.7k) never got tested — 86,539 → 84,812; the alternative played out: a retest of 84–85k. 85k is lost, spot sits on the weekly flip 84.6k; the downside trigger (85k + flip/max pain 84k) is half-activated. The breakout from the seven-day chop looks like a false one so far — flagged as a risk yesterday.
Base case: a fight for the 84–85k node (flip 84.6k, max pain 84k, gamma mass 85k, IBIT support 83.4k and gamma 85.2k) inside 82,500–87,000; weekly gamma is thin, so I don't expect last week's tight chop — moves within the range should be sharper. The board prices ~1% odds of −10% by Friday — no dump priced. Backdrop: short squeezes dominate liquidations (CLLD −0.86), ETF inflows nearly stalled (+$83M over 5d).
Downside trigger: acceptance below 84k leads to 83k (fresh puts), then the 81k put wall and the 79.9k zone (score 3) — the weekly board's lower 5% tail runs there too. A break of 79.9k opens 78.8k (MA50 + flip + max pain).
Upside trigger: holding 84.6–85k and reclaiming 85.6k opens 86.5–87k, then the 88.6k node (IBIT call wall + fresh zone, score 3) and 90k.
Alternative: a pin at 84–85k into Friday — max pain 84k and IBIT support 83.4k argue for it. But Deribit is building puts below spot while IBIT builds calls above: venues have split, structure sets no direction. Beta.