BTC: $84,261
├ 50MA: $74,940 ✅
├ 200MA: $70,884 ✅
├ Realized: $52,791 (MVRV 1.60)
├ STH cost basis: $71,422
├ LTH cost basis: $48,723
├ RSI (weekly): 61.0
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,687
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,419
├ BTC/Gold: 19.7 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
ETF 5d +2653M$ / 20d +2864M$ · CME fwd 2/5 LONG (смешанно) · CLLD 1d +0.94 · 1d driver: spot ↓
liq BTC 6m 0.10 3m 0.11 1m 0.27 7d 0.24 (B↓) | ETH 6m 0.09 3m 0.09 1m 0.26 7d 0.27 (B↓) · int BTC↓ ETH↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 80000/88000 Month 75000/95000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Positive gamma: weekly GEX +$137M — dealer hedging dampens swings, pin-prone tape; gamma mass sits at 85k, same as the weekly call wall.
Flip at 78,028 is deep below spot, put wall 80k, max pain 78k — the whole support structure is underneath; only 31% of weekly OI sits above spot.
Board unwound into tomorrow's expiry (OI −5k on the session): 85k trimmed (−1.6k), 81k built (+1k) — mass being walked up toward spot from below.
Weekly charm −$255M — gross metric, reflects OI concentrated below spot.
IBIT snapshot is a session behind — skipping the venue comparison today.
Total
Total-book DEX +$8.0B — dealers net-long delta, though down sharply from $10.2B yesterday alongside the pullback.
Spot 84.3k sits far above every anchor: realized 52.8k, MA50/200 at 74.9k/70.9k, STH basis 71.4k, mining cost 74.4k; nearest is IBIT basis at 81.7k.
Fear&Greed 71 (greed), DVOL 37 at just the 17th %ile of the year — vol premium on offer is thin.
Overall: both venues in positive gamma, structure firm but stretched from cost-basis anchors.
Week ahead (beta)
Day 82 of the track. Honest check: yesterday's 84.5–87k pin around 85k got pressed at its lower edge — 85,323 → 84,261; the downside trigger (losing 84.0–84.5k) partially fired, though the 82.45–82.85k cluster wasn't reached. Spot flow, not perps, drove the selling.
Base case: into tomorrow's expiry, a fight at the 84–85k edge with gravity toward the 85k gamma mass — positive gamma, weekly median (~84.3k) right on spot; the board prices ~0.4% odds of −10% by Friday.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 85.2–85.6k opens 87.1–87.6k, then 88k.
Downside trigger: losing 82.85k (liq + flip zone 82.6k) points to 81.4k, deeper the 80k put wall + 79.9k liq.
Caveats: weekly structure recenters after tomorrow's opex; standing liquidation skew leans down (grade B) — test-tier signal, not a promise of movement.