BTC: $77,692
├ 50MA: $67,034 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,343 ✅
├ Realized: $52,635 (MVRV 1.48)
├ STH cost basis: $69,980
├ LTH cost basis: $48,918
├ RSI (weekly): 56.4
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,686
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $77,849
├ BTC/Gold: 17.4 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 68 (Greed)
ETF 5d +924M$ / 20d +3306M$ · CME fwd 0/5 LONG (все нейтральны) · CLLD 1d -0.24 · 1d driver: perp ↓
liq BTC 6m 0.27 3m 0.12 1m 0.19 7d 0.50 (C↓) | ETH 6m 0.12 3m 0.12 1m 0.17 7d 0.50 (B↓) · int BTC 1m↓ ETH 1m↓
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/82000 Month 70000/85000 Quarter 60000/100000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma on both venues, but weekly GEX +24M — the cushion thinned again (+38M yesterday): the pin is loose, swings can widen.
Fresh weekly board (Sep 4): call wall 82,000 lines up with the gamma wall — the week's cap; the put wall migrated 74k → 75,000, the floor now sits right under spot. Max pain 71k and flip 64.6k deep below — regime firmly positive.
Weekly charm −0.07M — for the first time in ten days the decay drag toward the board's center is effectively gone.
Session OI −23k with unwinds at 82k/70k/75k/80k — post-expiry cleanup, little fresh build.
IBIT aligned: same regime, call wall ~82.3k matches, and nearly all its session build landed above spot (81–86k) — the ETF book keeps stacking upside.
Total
Full-book DEX +4.49B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +25.6M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 77,692 trades above realized (52.6k), the 50/200DMA (67.0k/69.3k) and STH basis (70.0k), but production cost 77,849 now sits slightly ABOVE price — first time this run; IBIT cost basis 81.7k remains the nearest overhead marker.
Book-wide max pain 72k and flip 66k sit far below — price still runs ahead of structure.
Fear & Greed 68 — greed cooling (73 → 68), weekly RSI 56. Constructive but stretched; DVOL in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
56 days of history. Honest check: the 76.5–82k corridor holds an eleventh day, but its floor is being tested for the first time — 78,834 → 77,692 on a perp-driven −3% day; the 77.5k downside trigger hasn't formally fired, spot sits right on it.
Base case: chop 75,000–80,000 with a lean toward testing the floor — liq 76,500/76,000 (weight 100), the 75k put wall and the tested 75.2k zone below; the 80.45–82k node (liq + call/gamma wall 82k + IBIT basis 81.7k) above. The weekly board prices only ~5% odds of closing below 72.3k — no deep flush implied.
Downside trigger: losing 76.0–76.5k slides price to the 75k put wall, then air to 74k; production cost above spot removes one bull argument.
Upside trigger: reclaiming 78.8–79k opens 80.45k, then the 81.6–82.85k node.
Uncertainty above normal: the gamma cushion has thinned three days running, the charm support is spent, and standing liq skew points down (grade C — context, not a signal).