BTC: $77,289
├ 50MA: $64,916 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,021 ✅
├ Realized: $52,369 (MVRV 1.48)
├ STH cost basis: $68,194
├ LTH cost basis: $49,029
├ RSI (weekly): 56.2
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,739
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,248 ⚠️
├ BTC/Gold: 16.9 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 71 (Greed)
ETF 5d +1918M$ / 20d +2320M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d +0.68 · 1d driver: perp ↑
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 74000/80000 Month 65000/82000 Quarter 60000/90000
Weekly
Dealers are long gamma, weekly GEX +87M — a fat cushion, but the board badly lags price: the 75k weekly call wall sits BELOW spot, put wall 60k and max pain 66k are deep underneath. The pin on these strikes is dead; the Aug 28 expiry trades off an outdated map.
Weekly flip 64,728 — far below, regime firmly positive.
Weekly charm −28M — decay flow presses down toward the board's center for a third straight day: the main structural headwind against the impulse.
IBIT agrees: same regime, but its weekly levels (walls 68.1k/72.6k, max pain 66.4k) also sit far below spot — neither venue has rebuilt after the vertical move.
Total
Full-book DEX +6.8B — dealer net delta strongly positive, hedges lean with the trend; VEX +25M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 77,289 trades above realized (52.4k), the 50/200DMA (64.9k/69.0k), STH cost basis (68.2k), production cost (74.2k) and MSTR basis (75.4k); the nearest overhead marker is IBIT cost basis at 81.7k.
Book-wide max pain 69k and flip 63.4k are left far below — price ran ahead of the structure.
Fear & Greed 71 (greed), weekly RSI 56 — constructive but stretched: the board is chasing spot, not leading it.
Week ahead (beta)
48 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's digestion call in 74.6–80k is playing out — 77,260 → 77,289, a flat day after +19% in two sessions; direction right three days running.
Base case: continued digestion in 74,500–80,000 — liq 76.1k (weight 100) and the 74.2–74.6k node (production cost + fresh zone + liq 75.25k) below, the 79.2–79.85k cluster (liq + fresh gamma zone) and the 80k wall above; negative weekly charm keeps nudging price toward the board's center into Aug 28.
Downside trigger: losing 74.2–74.6k opens an air pocket to 72k (weekly OI node), then 70.8k.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 79.8–80k opens the 82.85k liq cluster and IBIT cost basis 81.7k.
Uncertainty stays above normal: the board hasn't rebuilt after the vertical leg — walls and flip will migrate up, and greed at 71 keeps the tape shock-sensitive either way.