BTC: $71,687
├ 50MA: $64,256 ✅
├ 200MA: $69,008 ✅
├ Realized: $52,256 (MVRV 1.37)
├ STH cost basis: $67,244
├ LTH cost basis: $49,112
├ RSI (weekly): 50.5
├ IBIT cost basis: $81,819
├ MSTR cost basis: $75,385
├ Production cost: $74,248 ⚠️
├ BTC/Gold: 16.0 oz
└ Fear & Greed: 62 (Greed)
ETF 5d +815M$ / 20d +941M$ · CME fwd 1/5 LONG (mild long tilt) · CLLD 1d -0.93
CSP / CC(where selling puts / calls is structurally favourable)
Week 68000/74000 Month 65000/75000 Quarter 60000/80000
Weekly
Dealers long gamma (weekly GEX +31M), but spot ripped ABOVE the 67k weekly call wall — the board hasn't caught up, expiry is tomorrow. Weekly flip 63,531 and max pain 66k sit deep below price.
Weekly charm −55M — decay flow works down toward the board's center: the one structural headwind against the impulse into the last day.
Weekly walls 60k/67k are both far from price — the pin on this expiry is effectively dead.
IBIT agrees on regime (long gamma) but its book sits closer to price: floor ~70.9k, cap ~74.4k right around spot — the ETF book has already migrated up, the Deribit weekly lags.
Total
Full-book DEX +4.56B — dealer net delta strongly positive; VEX +21.6M — a vol drop adds a hedge bid. Both constructive.
Spot 71,687 trades above the 50DMA (64.3k), the reclaimed 200DMA (69.0k) and STH cost basis (67.2k); realized 52.3k far below. Overhead: production cost 74.2k and MSTR basis 75.4k — the nearest fundamental caps.
Book-wide max pain 66k left far below, total flip 62,893 — regime firmly positive.
Fear & Greed 62 — greed for the first time in months; weekly RSI 50.5. DVOL 38 in the low tercile — vol premium is thin.
Week ahead (beta)
46 days of history. Honest check: yesterday's upside trigger fired with a massive overshoot — 64,991 → 71,687 (+10%): 66k, the 67k call wall, STH basis 67.2k and the 200DMA all cleared in one session — the upside unclaimed for three months got claimed at once. Direction right, magnitude beyond any scenario.
Base case: digestion in 70,000–73,000 — support 70.8–70.9k (tested zone + IBIT floor), resistance 72k (weekly OI) and the 74.3k zone (production cost + gamma wall), then the 75k monthly wall.
Downside trigger: losing 70.8k opens an air pocket to 68.85–69.0k (liq weight 100 + 200DMA), then 68.2k/67.05k clusters.
Upside trigger: acceptance above 74.3–75k after the Aug 21 expiry opens 78k/80k (quarterly OI).
Uncertainty is high: the structure hasn't rebuilt after a vertical move — walls and flip will migrate up, and negative weekly charm can yank price lower into tomorrow's expiry.